Combat Edge Intelligence

Gavin Tucker vs Mads Burnell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record19-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
66"Reach68.00"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Titans MMATeamArte Suave Copenhagen

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gavin TuckerNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652
Mads BurnellNow 1667
If they win+12→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
1.28
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.71
57%
Strike defense
51%
3.13
Takedown avg.
3.45
44%
Takedown accuracy
47%
54%
Takedown defense
22%
1.46
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Gavin TuckerMads Burnell
1650170020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
6 (46%)
Submission
9 (47%)
3 (23%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Mads Burnell57%
Gavin Tucker 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mads Burnell a 57% favorite over Gavin Tucker in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gavin Tucker's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1667), separated by just 1 points.

Gavin Tucker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gavin Tucker finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Mads Burnell 53%.

Mads Burnell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.