Combat Edge Intelligence

Geoff Neal vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Neal
us

Geoff Neal

“Handz of Steel”

16-8-0WelterweightUFC

1692Good

Tale of the tape

16-8-0Record36-12-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Fortis MMATeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Geoff NealNow 1692
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.02
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
51%
Strike accuracy
37%
5.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
57%
Strike defense
59%
0.54
Takedown avg.
1.65
0%
Takedown accuracy
49%
88%
Takedown defense
64%
0.11
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Geoff NealKeita Nakamura
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (63%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
2 (13%)
Submission
16 (44%)
4 (25%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Neal72%
Keita Nakamura 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Neal a 72% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1693), separated by just 1 points.

Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Geoff Neal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.