Geoff Pavey vs Jay Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record12-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight225 lbs
Sensei MMATeamMPF Training Systems
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
If they win+12→ 1519
If they lose-12→ 1495
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyJay Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey72%
Jay Silva 28%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 72% favorite over Jay Silva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jay Silva's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1507), separated by just 6 points.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jay Silva 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.