Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Harris vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-8-1Record18-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Hurricane FitnessTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gerald HarrisNow 1661
If they win+12→ 1673
If they lose-12→ 1649
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+12→ 1674
If they lose-12→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
26%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
63%
Strike defense
61%
2.62
Takedown avg.
0
57%
Takedown accuracy
0%
73%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Gerald HarrisTom Breese
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (58%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
2 (8%)
Submission
12 (67%)
9 (35%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Breese69%
Gerald Harris 31%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 69% favorite over Gerald Harris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1662), separated by just 1 points.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gerald Harris finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.