Combat Edge Intelligence

Gesias Cavalcante vs Kurt Holobaugh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-12-1Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamGracie United

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gesias CavalcanteNow 1656
If they win+12→ 1668
If they lose-12→ 1644
Kurt HolobaughNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.65
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.30
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.66
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
39%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Gesias CavalcanteKurt Holobaugh
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
10 (45%)
Submission
10 (48%)
5 (23%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Kurt Holobaugh53%
Gesias Cavalcante 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kurt Holobaugh a 53% favorite over Gesias Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.

Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Holobaugh 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.