Combat Edge Intelligence

Gesias Cavalcante vs Matheus Camilo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-12-1Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach 69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gesias CavalcanteNow 1656
If they win+12→ 1668
If they lose-12→ 1644
Matheus CamiloNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.25
TBD
Strike defense
64%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
54%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.63

Trajectory

Gesias CavalcanteMatheus Camilo
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
10 (45%)
Submission
2 (18%)
5 (23%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Camilo73%
Gesias Cavalcante 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Camilo a 73% favorite over Gesias Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.

Matheus Camilo enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Camilo 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.