Gilbert Burns vs Kevin Holland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record29-15-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'3"
71"Reach81"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamPhalanx MMA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsKevin Holland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland51%
Gilbert Burns 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 51% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Burns's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1736), separated by just 8 points.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.
Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland share 2 common opponents: Mike Malott and Jack Della Maddalena.
Kevin Holland carries a 10-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.