Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record18-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
Terrance McKinneyNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
32%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
63%
Strike defense
43%
4.08
Takedown avg.
3.31
54%
Takedown accuracy
0%
92%
Takedown defense
73%
0.83
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Gleison TibauTerrance McKinney
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
15 (39%)
Submission
9 (50%)
19 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney73%
Gleison Tibau 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 73% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1674), separated by just 1 points.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.