Combat Edge Intelligence

Gloria de Paula vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-7-0Record6-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach64.00
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
Fabiana Belai AcademiaTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Gloria de Paula is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gloria de PaulaNow 1494
If they win+13→ 1507
If they lose-19→ 1475
Jocelyn Jones-LybargerNow 1426
If they win+29→ 1455
If they lose-19→ 1407

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.96
54%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.83
66%
Strike defense
56%
0.74
Takedown avg.
0.34
38%
Takedown accuracy
25%
65%
Takedown defense
82%
0.49
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gloria de PaulaJocelyn Jones-Lybarger
145015001550201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (17%)
3 (50%)
Decision
5 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

Gloria de Paula74%
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 26%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Gloria de Paula a 74% favorite over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Gloria de Paula holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1494 to 1426, a 68-point edge.

Gloria de Paula enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gloria de Paula finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 17%.

Gloria de Paula carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.