Combat Edge Intelligence

Grant Dawson vs Shinya Aoki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Shinya Aoki
jp

Shinya Aoki

“Tobikan Judan”

48-11-0LightweightONE

1809Great

Tale of the tape

24-3-1Record48-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
American Top TeamTeamParaestra Tokyo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
Shinya AokiNow 1809
If they win+12→ 1821
If they lose-12→ 1797

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.21
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
52%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
3.81
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
57%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.12
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Grant DawsonShinya Aoki
1800185020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (21%)
KO/TKO
4 (9%)
14 (58%)
Submission
31 (67%)
5 (21%)
Decision
11 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson73%
Shinya Aoki 27%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 73% favorite over Shinya Aoki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shinya Aoki's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1802 vs 1809), separated by just 7 points.

Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Shinya Aoki 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.