Combat Edge Intelligence

Greg Wilson vs Matheus Scheffel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
41,0"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight262 lbs
TBDTeamCM System

What's at stake

Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Greg Wilson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Greg WilsonNow 1476
If they win+27→ 1503
If they lose-21→ 1455
Matheus ScheffelNow 1521
If they win+10→ 1531
If they lose-14→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
33%
Strike accuracy
36%
5.72
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
31%
Strike defense
47%
1.68
Takedown avg.
0
17%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
100%
8.41
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Greg WilsonMatheus Scheffel
150015501600201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Scheffel58%
Greg Wilson 42%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 58% favorite over Greg Wilson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1476, a 45-point edge.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.