Combat Edge Intelligence

Gregor Gillespie vs Paddy Pimblett

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-1-0Record23-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamNext Generation UK

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gregor GillespieNow 1772
If they win+16→ 1788
If they lose-16→ 1756
Paddy PimblettNow 1780
If they win+12→ 1792
If they lose-12→ 1768

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1656 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.74
Sig. strikes / min
5.49
53%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.89
58%
Strike defense
43%
6.86
Takedown avg.
0.69
48%
Takedown accuracy
21%
100%
Takedown defense
44%
0.76
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Gregor GillespiePaddy Pimblett
1750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
5 (36%)
Submission
10 (43%)
2 (14%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Paddy Pimblett70%
Gregor Gillespie 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 70% favorite over Gregor Gillespie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1772 vs 1780), separated by just 8 points.

Gregor Gillespie finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 74%.

Paddy Pimblett carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.