Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Omari Akhmedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record24-8-1
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
MjolnirTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693
Omari AkhmedovNow 1715
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.97
61%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
49%
Strike defense
56%
2
Takedown avg.
2.58
52%
Takedown accuracy
46%
68%
Takedown defense
66%
1
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonOmari Akhmedov
17001750202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
8 (33%)
13 (68%)
Submission
7 (29%)
2 (11%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Gunnar Nelson54%
Omari Akhmedov 46%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 54% favorite over Omari Akhmedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Omari Akhmedov's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1709 vs 1715), separated by just 6 points.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Omari Akhmedov 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.