Gustavo Lopez vs Rafael do Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-1Record12-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'4"
67"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamX-Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo LopezRafael do Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael do Nascimento63%
Gustavo Lopez 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 63% favorite over Gustavo Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gustavo Lopez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1635), separated by just 0 points.
Gustavo Lopez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gustavo Lopez finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 75%.
Rafael do Nascimento carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.