Combat Edge Intelligence

Guto Inocente vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record0-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height-
TBDReach-
254 lbsWeight205 lbs
Real Kombat TechniqueTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

Guto Inocente is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Guto InocenteNow 1496
If they win+22→ 1518
If they lose-26→ 1470
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
67%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.92
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0.67
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.67
Submission avg.
TBD

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
3 (30%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (10%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke63%
Guto Inocente 37%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 63% favorite over Guto Inocente in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Guto Inocente's way (46%).

Guto Inocente holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1496 to 1471, a 25-point edge.

Guto Inocente enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Guto Inocente finishes 90% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.