Guy Mezger vs Nell Ariano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-13-2Record6-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
TBDReach-
200 lbsWeight206 lbs
Lion's Den DallasTeamPlatinum MMA Training Centre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Guy MezgerNell Ariano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nell Ariano79%
Guy Mezger 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nell Ariano a 79% favorite over Guy Mezger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Guy Mezger's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1637), separated by just 2 points.
Nell Ariano enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Guy Mezger finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Nell Ariano 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.