Combat Edge Intelligence

Gvido Šusts vs Rafael Carino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record2-1-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'8"
-ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight245 lbs
TBDTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Gvido Šusts is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Rafael Carino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gvido ŠustsNow 1531
If they win+22→ 1553
If they lose-26→ 1505
Rafael CarinoNow 1500
If they win+26→ 1526
If they lose-22→ 1478

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gvido ŠustsRafael Carino
1500155020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (50%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Gvido Šusts67%
Rafael Carino 33%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Gvido Šusts a 67% favorite over Rafael Carino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Gvido Šusts holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1500, a 31-point edge.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.