Combat Edge Intelligence

Gvido Šusts vs Patrick Smith

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record20-17-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'2"
-ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight225 lbs
TBDTeamTBD

What's at stake

Gvido Šusts is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Patrick Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gvido ŠustsNow 1531
If they win+21→ 1552
If they lose-27→ 1504
Patrick SmithNow 1484
If they win+14→ 1498
If they lose-10→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gvido ŠustsPatrick Smith
1500155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
13 (65%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (30%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Gvido Šusts71%
Patrick Smith 29%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Gvido Šusts a 71% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Gvido Šusts holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1484, a 47-point edge.

Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Patrick Smith 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.