Combat Edge Intelligence

Gvido Šusts vs Valentijn Overeem

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record30-32-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'3"
-ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight234 lbs
TBDTeamGolden Glory

What's at stake

Gvido Šusts is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Valentijn Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gvido ŠustsNow 1531
If they win+19→ 1550
If they lose-29→ 1502
Valentijn OvereemNow 1461
If they win+14→ 1475
If they lose-10→ 1451

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gvido ŠustsValentijn Overeem
14501500155020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
12 (40%)
0 (0%)
Submission
17 (57%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (3%)

Combat Edge model read

Gvido Šusts76%
Valentijn Overeem 24%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Gvido Šusts a 76% favorite over Valentijn Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Gvido Šusts holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1461, a 70-point edge.

Valentijn Overeem enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Valentijn Overeem 97%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.