Hacran Dias vs Mandel Nallo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-11-1Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'0"
69,0"Reach75"
162 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1624
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hacran DiasMandel Nallo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mandel Nallo70%
Hacran Dias 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mandel Nallo a 70% favorite over Hacran Dias in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hacran Dias's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1635), separated by just 1 points.
Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hacran Dias finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Mandel Nallo 100%.
Mandel Nallo carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.