Hacran Dias vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-11-1Record11-6-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
69,0"Reach71"
162 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1624
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hacran DiasMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Frevola66%
Hacran Dias 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Frevola a 66% favorite over Hacran Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1637), separated by just 1 points.
Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hacran Dias finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Matt Frevola carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.