Hatsu Hioki vs Lerryan Douglas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
AliveTeamKiller Bees
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hatsu HiokiLerryan Douglas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lerryan Douglas70%
Hatsu Hioki 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lerryan Douglas a 70% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hatsu Hioki's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1638), separated by just 2 points.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lerryan Douglas enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Hatsu Hioki finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Lerryan Douglas 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.