Combat Edge Intelligence

Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record25-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'6"
64"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamRoufusport

What's at stake

Henry Cejudo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Sergio Pettis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Henry CejudoNow 1770
If they win+15→ 1785
If they lose-17→ 1753
Sergio PettisNow 1752
If they win+13→ 1765
If they lose-11→ 1741

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1782 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.83
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
47%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
57%
Strike defense
65%
1.78
Takedown avg.
0.85
22%
Takedown accuracy
37%
72%
Takedown defense
68%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Henry CejudoSergio Pettis
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (16%)
8 (50%)
Decision
16 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Sergio Pettis62%
Henry Cejudo 38%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Pettis a 62% favorite over Henry Cejudo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Henry Cejudo's way (47%).

Henry Cejudo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1752, a 18-point edge.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Henry Cejudo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.

Sergio Pettis carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.