Combat Edge Intelligence

Hilarie Rose vs Istela Nunes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-7-0Record6-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'4"
TBDReach66"
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
USMMATeamTeam Nunes

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hilarie RoseNow 1490
If they win+17→ 1507
If they lose-15→ 1475
Istela NunesNow 1501
If they win+15→ 1516
If they lose-17→ 1484

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1495 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.33
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
34%
Strike accuracy
46%
6.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
44%
Strike defense
60%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Hilarie RoseIstela Nunes
1450150015502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
3 (43%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (14%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Hilarie Rose and Istela Nunes within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1490 vs 1501), separated by just 11 points.

Istela Nunes enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Hilarie Rose finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Istela Nunes 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.