Houston Alexander vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-16-1Record15-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
203 lbsWeight205 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Houston Alexander is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1463
If they lose-13→ 1439
If they win+17→ 1449
If they lose-15→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Houston AlexanderLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leonardo Guimaraes60%
Houston Alexander 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Guimaraes a 60% favorite over Houston Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Houston Alexander's way (47%).
Houston Alexander holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1452 to 1432, a 20-point edge.
Houston Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Houston Alexander finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.