Hugo Duarte vs Patrick Vespaziani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
240 lbsWeight242 lbs
Hugo Duarte Luta LivreTeamMMA Spirit
What's at stake
Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Hugo Duarte carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1542
If they lose-23→ 1494
If they win+15→ 1547
If they lose-17→ 1515
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hugo DuartePatrick Vespaziani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani63%
Hugo Duarte 37%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 63% favorite over Hugo Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1532 to 1517, a 15-point edge.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Hugo Duarte finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Vespaziani 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.