Ian Machado Garry vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-1-0Record28-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'11"
74" Reach69"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1842
If they lose-16→ 1810
If they win+12→ 1842
If they lose-12→ 1818
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry52%
Max Holloway 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 52% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Max Holloway's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1826 vs 1830), separated by just 4 points.
Ian Machado Garry enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Ian Machado Garry carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.