Combat Edge Intelligence

Ibragim Magomedov vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-8-1Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
230 lbsWeight257 lbs
Red Devil Sport ClubTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ibragim MagomedovNow 1643
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-12→ 1631
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
TBD
Strike accuracy
60%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
43%
TBD
Takedown defense
88%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Ibragim MagomedovThomas Petersen
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (55%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
5 (23%)
Submission
1 (9%)
5 (23%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen66%
Ibragim Magomedov 34%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 66% favorite over Ibragim Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ibragim Magomedov's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1643 vs 1639), separated by just 4 points.

Ibragim Magomedov finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.