Icho Larenas vs Patrick Vespaziani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-6-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'7"
TBDReach79"
255 lbsWeight242 lbs
TBDTeamMMA Spirit
What's at stake
Patrick Vespaziani is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Icho Larenas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1511
If they lose-14→ 1479
If they win+14→ 1543
If they lose-18→ 1511
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Icho LarenasPatrick Vespaziani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani72%
Icho Larenas 28%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 72% favorite over Icho Larenas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Patrick Vespaziani holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1529 to 1493, a 36-point edge.
Icho Larenas enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Icho Larenas finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Vespaziani 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.