Combat Edge Intelligence

Ieuan Davies vs Trey Ogden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trey Ogden
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Trey Ogden

“Shamurai”

18-7-0LightweightUFC

1666Good

Tale of the tape

8-0-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
-Reach72"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Blackledge MMATeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ieuan DaviesNow 1668
If they win+24→ 1692
If they lose-24→ 1644
Trey OgdenNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1490 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.20
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.89
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Ieuan DaviesTrey Ogden
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
6 (75%)
Submission
11 (61%)
1 (13%)
Decision
7 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Ieuan Davies61%
Trey Ogden 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ieuan Davies a 61% favorite over Trey Ogden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1666), separated by just 2 points.

Ieuan Davies enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Ieuan Davies finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.