Combat Edge Intelligence

Igor Severino vs Lucas Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'2"
69"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao EmilioTeamRenovacao Coari Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Igor SeverinoNow 1679
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
Lucas RochaNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.17
Sig. strikes / min
5.09
52%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.67
48%
Strike defense
56%
9.69
Takedown avg.
1.64
71%
Takedown accuracy
75%
50%
Takedown defense
76%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Igor SeverinoLucas Rocha
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
4 (40%)
Submission
4 (22%)
1 (10%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Igor Severino62%
Lucas Rocha 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Igor Severino a 62% favorite over Lucas Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1678), separated by just 1 points.

Igor Severino enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Igor Severino finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.

Igor Severino carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.