Israel Delgado vs Naoki Matsushita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-3-0Record12-16-11
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'6"
UnknownReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Panther Muay ThaiTeamMB3z
What's at stake
Israel Delgado is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1485
If they lose-26→ 1437
If they win+13→ 1445
If they lose-11→ 1421
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1573 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel DelgadoNaoki Matsushita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Delgado60%
Naoki Matsushita 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Delgado a 60% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Israel Delgado holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1463 to 1432, a 31-point edge.
Israel Delgado enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Israel Delgado finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Matsushita 42%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.