Combat Edge Intelligence

Istela Nunes vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-6-0Record6-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'7"
66"Reach64.00
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team NunesTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Istela Nunes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Istela NunesNow 1501
If they win+13→ 1514
If they lose-19→ 1482
Jocelyn Jones-LybargerNow 1426
If they win+29→ 1455
If they lose-19→ 1407

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.02
Sig. strikes / min
2.96
46%
Strike accuracy
31%
4.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.83
60%
Strike defense
56%
0
Takedown avg.
0.34
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
50%
Takedown defense
82%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Istela NunesJocelyn Jones-Lybarger
1450150015502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (17%)
4 (67%)
Decision
5 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

Istela Nunes60%
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 40%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Istela Nunes a 60% favorite over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Istela Nunes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1426, a 75-point edge.

Istela Nunes enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Istela Nunes finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger 17%.

Istela Nunes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.