Ivan Shtyrkov vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-2-1Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'5"
TBDReach78"
237 lbsWeight251 lbs
Archangel Michael ClubTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Ivan Shtyrkov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tom Aspinall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1803
If they lose-13→ 1779
If they win+17→ 1792
If they lose-15→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ivan ShtyrkovTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall70%
Ivan Shtyrkov 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 70% favorite over Ivan Shtyrkov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ivan Shtyrkov's way (48%).
Ivan Shtyrkov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1792 to 1775, a 17-point edge.
Ivan Shtyrkov enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ivan Shtyrkov finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.