Combat Edge Intelligence

Jafel Filho vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-0Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach75"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jafel FilhoNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.85
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
1.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
2.52
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
2.24
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jafel FilhoNkosi Ndebele
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
11 (65%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (6%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jafel Filho and Nkosi Ndebele within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1671), separated by just 2 points.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jafel Filho finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 64%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.