Combat Edge Intelligence

Jake McHugh vs Justin Jaynes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record17-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-Reach68"
146 lbsWeight159 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jake McHughNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Justin JaynesNow 1553
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
TBD
Strike accuracy
44%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.33
TBD
Strike defense
63%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.75
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
TBD
Takedown defense
20%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Jake McHughJustin Jaynes
15001550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (25%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
2 (50%)
Submission
6 (38%)
1 (25%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake McHugh63%
Justin Jaynes 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake McHugh a 63% favorite over Justin Jaynes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Jaynes's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1553), separated by just 5 points.

Jake McHugh finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Justin Jaynes 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.