James Irvin vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Reign MMATeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
James Irvin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1500
If they lose-17→ 1468
If they win+25→ 1492
If they lose-23→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
James IrvinMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting James Irvin and Marcio Alexandre Junior within a point of even.
James Irvin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1485 to 1467, a 18-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
James Irvin finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.