James McSweeney vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-18-0Record0-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height-
TBDReach-
248 lbsWeight205 lbs
McSweeney Martial ArtsTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
James McSweeney is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1497
If they lose-13→ 1473
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
James McSweeneyMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke70%
James McSweeney 30%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over James McSweeney in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans James McSweeney's way (48%).
James McSweeney holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1486 to 1471, a 15-point edge.
James McSweeney enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
James McSweeney finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.