Jan Błachowicz vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-11-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
78"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1765 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jan BłachowiczPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa71%
Jan Błachowicz 29%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 71% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1754), separated by just 6 points.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jan Błachowicz finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Jan Błachowicz and Paulo Costa share 1 common opponent: Israel Adesanya.
Jan Błachowicz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.