Jared Gooden vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-12-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'11"
77"Reach72,0"
171 lbsWeight186 lbs
X3 SportsTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1640
If they lose-12→ 1616
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared GoodenWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Gooden60%
Warlley Alves 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Gooden a 60% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1625), separated by just 3 points.
Jared Gooden enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jared Gooden finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Jared Gooden carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.