Jared Vanderaa vs Karl Williams
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach79"
259 lbsWeight247 lbs
Team QuestTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1603 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jared VanderaaKarl Williams
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Williams60%
Jared Vanderaa 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 60% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1594), separated by just 9 points.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Karl Williams 30%.
Jared Vanderaa and Karl Williams share 1 common opponent: Chase Sherman.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.