Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Vanderaa vs Marcus Buchecha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record5-3-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach80"
259 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team QuestTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jared VanderaaNow 1585
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
Marcus BuchechaNow 1593
If they win+23→ 1616
If they lose-25→ 1568

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.96
Sig. strikes / min
1.70
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
5.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
45%
Strike defense
51%
0.18
Takedown avg.
2
50%
Takedown accuracy
17%
20%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jared VanderaaMarcus Buchecha
1550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
6 (35%)
Submission
4 (80%)
3 (18%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcus Buchecha62%
Jared Vanderaa 38%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Buchecha a 62% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1593), separated by just 8 points.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Buchecha 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.