Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Vanderaa vs Rex Richards

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
80"ReachTBD
259 lbsWeight218 lbs
Team QuestTeamWest Texas MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jared VanderaaNow 1585
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
Rex RichardsNow 1587
If they win+24→ 1611
If they lose-24→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.96
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
0.18
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
20%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jared VanderaaRex Richards
15501600200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
6 (35%)
Submission
3 (43%)
3 (18%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Rex Richards56%
Jared Vanderaa 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rex Richards a 56% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1587), separated by just 2 points.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Rex Richards 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.