Combat Edge Intelligence

Jared Vanderaa vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach77.50
259 lbsWeight266 lbs
Team QuestTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jared VanderaaNow 1585
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.96
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
45%
Strike accuracy
45%
5.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
45%
Strike defense
44%
0.18
Takedown avg.
1.09
50%
Takedown accuracy
24%
20%
Takedown defense
69%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jared VanderaaTimothy Johnson
15501600201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
6 (35%)
Submission
3 (17%)
3 (18%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Timothy Johnson52%
Jared Vanderaa 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Timothy Johnson a 52% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1586), separated by just 1 points.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Jared Vanderaa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Jared Vanderaa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.