Combat Edge Intelligence

Jarno Errens vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-1Record14-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team ThrivingTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jarno ErrensNow 1595
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579
Tristan ConnellyNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
44%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
62%
Strike defense
51%
0
Takedown avg.
0.33
0%
Takedown accuracy
14%
33%
Takedown defense
60%
0.31
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Jarno ErrensTristan Connelly
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
5 (33%)
Submission
9 (64%)
7 (47%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Jarno Errens54%
Tristan Connelly 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jarno Errens a 54% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tristan Connelly's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1597), separated by just 2 points.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jarno Errens finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Jarno Errens carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.