Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason MacDonald vs Tafon Nchukwi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

25-16-0Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach77"
185 lbsWeight190 lbs
Pure FitnessTeamTeam Lloyd Irvin

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575
Tafon NchukwiNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.55
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
53%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
47%
Strike defense
54%
1.43
Takedown avg.
0.76
16%
Takedown accuracy
57%
35%
Takedown defense
65%
1.97
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jason MacDonaldTafon Nchukwi
155016001650201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
19 (76%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (12%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Tafon Nchukwi62%
Jason MacDonald 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tafon Nchukwi a 62% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1588), separated by just 1 points.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason MacDonald finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tafon Nchukwi 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.