Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Novelli vs Nicolas Sávio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-1Record13-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
75,0"Reach-
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Team QuestTeamStrikers MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jason NovelliNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
Nicolas SávioNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.73
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
24%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
67%
Strike defense
TBD
0.70
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jason NovelliNicolas Sávio
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
6 (50%)
Submission
3 (23%)
3 (25%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolas Sávio75%
Jason Novelli 25%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolas Sávio a 75% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1638), separated by just 1 points.

Jason Novelli finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nicolas Sávio 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.