Combat Edge Intelligence

Jason Saggo vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Wulfrun MMATeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jason SaggoNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Terrance McKinneyNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.50
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
40%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
52%
Strike defense
43%
2.33
Takedown avg.
3.31
40%
Takedown accuracy
0%
23%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Jason SaggoTerrance McKinney
1600165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
9 (69%)
Submission
9 (50%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney70%
Jason Saggo 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 70% favorite over Jason Saggo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jason Saggo's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1674), separated by just 1 points.

Jason Saggo finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.