Combat Edge Intelligence

Javier Reyes vs Spike Carlyle

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Spike Carlyle
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Spike Carlyle

“The Alpha Ginger”

15-6-0LightweightRFF

1673Good

Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record15-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"Reach39,0"
146 lbsWeight156 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamKings MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Javier ReyesNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Spike CarlyleNow 1673
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

8.91
Sig. strikes / min
2.55
56%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
47%
Strike defense
30%
2
Takedown avg.
3.34
50%
Takedown accuracy
37%
50%
Takedown defense
57%
0
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Javier ReyesSpike Carlyle
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
8 (35%)
Submission
8 (53%)
4 (17%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Javier Reyes60%
Spike Carlyle 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Javier Reyes a 60% favorite over Spike Carlyle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1673), separated by just 1 points.

Javier Reyes finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Spike Carlyle 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.