Combat Edge Intelligence

Javier Vazquez vs Lucas Alexander

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record8-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamFusion X-Cel Performance

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Javier VazquezNow 1579
If they win+24→ 1603
If they lose-24→ 1555
Lucas AlexanderNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
5.23
36%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.83
72%
Strike defense
71%
2.56
Takedown avg.
0
52%
Takedown accuracy
0%
57%
Takedown defense
57%
1.49
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Javier VazquezLucas Alexander
1500155016002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
10 (63%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (31%)
Decision
5 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Javier Vazquez59%
Lucas Alexander 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Javier Vazquez a 59% favorite over Lucas Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1579 vs 1576), separated by just 3 points.

Lucas Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Javier Vazquez finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Alexander 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.